Decision making

Trevor L Taylor frames excellence as systematic rather than accidental, and the entries in this cluster explain the methods that turn that idea into better decisions: the premortem, the checklist, loss aversion, second order thinking, expected value, opportunity cost and the management of attention. Much of the research behind them grew from the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky on predictable errors in human reasoning, The New Yorker recounted. Kahneman named overconfidence as the bias he would most like to remove, he told The Guardian, and with colleagues he set out questions that expose bias before a big bet, in Harvard Business Review.

Entries in Decision making

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  Attention Is the Scarce Asset in Every Portfolio

  Focus runs out before money does, and the research on limited attention shows how.

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  Premortem

  Imagine the project already failed, then ask why, while there is still time to change it.

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  Checklists in High Stakes Work

  From test pilots to operating rooms, a short list of steps that experts still skip.

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  Loss Aversion

  Why a loss can sting about twice as much as a gain pleases, and where that idea is contested.

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  Second Order Thinking

  Asking and then what, from bounties that breed cobras to efficiency that raises demand.

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  Expected Value in Decisions

  Probability times payoff, summed across outcomes, and the cases where that sum is not enough.

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  Opportunity Cost

  Every yes spends something else, and the hidden price is the option left behind.